7th Chamber: Shadow Boxing FaZe vs Gambit IEM Cologne Quarterfinals Pt. 2
“When my mind start to clicking and the strategy
Is mastered the plot thickens” — GZA
Only six teams survived and the quarterfinals are set: Virtus.Pro vs Astralis and FaZe vs Gambit. G2 and Na`Vi await the winners in the semifinals. All teams will have five days to prepare themselves for the battle whether: individually, mentally, or strategically. With this much time, we can shadow box how the match could play out. This time we shadow box FaZe vs Gambit.
Individual Skill:
For individual skill, we will first survey the HLTV ratings of the FaZe and Gambit players at Cologne:
1.22 Russel “Twistzz” Van Dulken
.88 Finn “Karrigan” Andersen
1.02 Havard “rain” Nygaard
.98 Olof “olofmeister” Gustafsson
1.14 Helvijs “broky” Saukants
1.24 Dmitry “sh1ro” Sokolov
1.2 Sergey “Ax1Le” Rykhtorov
1.19 Abay “Hobbit” Khassenov
1.18 Vladislav “nafany” Gorshkov
.91 Timofey “interz” Yakushin
Rating wise, Gambit blows FaZe out of the water. That makes sense as Gambit are the best team in the world and this is FaZe’s first deep run into a tournament with this lineup. The stats paint an overwhelming landslide in Gambit’s favor, but they are a little overinflated. I don’t expect nafany to continue fragging at such a high level (though his impact should still be fairly high). It’s also worth considering that the stats are a little inflated as Gambit’s team play, trades, and tactics are the best in the world so that puts them in a position to perform at a high level consistently.
So while Gambit is at a decisive advantage in individual skill, it isn’t hopeless. FaZe has two players that can match them: Broky and Twistzz. Broky is probably playing at the best level I’ve seen him in and should be able to contest sh1ro in skill and overall team impact (Broky has had a few flashy highlights, but he also understands rotations and doesn’t take unnecessary risks).
The real clincher for FaZe’s hope is Twistzz. Twistzz could be the second best player in the entire tournament (Oleksandr “s1mple” Kostyliev is undeniable). Twistzz has the unreal aim that puts him mechanically on par with any player in history. More importantly, FaZe are utilizing all of his unique characteristics. Twistzz’s CT-side positions have shifted from last man standing to playing towards larger centers of control (Mid areas on Dust2, Mirage, yard on Nuke, A rotator on Inferno).
Twistzz still favors the more passive approach, but the combination of olofmeister, rain, and karrigan means that FaZe can always have a player support him or take first contact for him. This also leaves him in a position where he can be the last man standing and pull out some miracle defense with headshots. He’s also willing to mix it up and take first contact which makes use of his insane headshot accuracy.
On the T-side, his role shifts depending on the map and round. He can play towards the pack or be a more passive lurker. FaZe also mix up what position he plays going into the site, whether as the entry, second man in, or supportive lurker. The only real weakness I see in his T-side play is that he lacks the killer instinct of lurkers like Ax1Le or Hobbit, so his efficacy depends on the matchup. Either way, FaZe need Twistzz to have a fighting chance in this matchup.
Map Veto:
This map veto is hard to predict outside of the first two bans: Gambit ban nuke and FaZe will ban vertigo. Gambit don’t play nuke and FaZe already dislike playing Vertigo. FaZe will then double-down on banning Vertigo as Gambit are using Vertigo as their first pick at Cologne to good results.
After that, it’s up in the air as to what either team will do. Gambit’s map pool is deep enough to play anything and they don’t sway too heavily towards either comfort or anti-stratting. As for Karrigan, he is the most unpredictable map veto strategist. He’s confounded the greatest CS minds in the game. So I can only give my best estimate of how I think things play out:
GAM ban Nuke
FaZe ban Vertigo
GAM pick Inferno
FaZe pick Ancient
GAM ban Overpass
FaZe ban Mirage
Final map Dust 2
Here is my overall reasoning. Gambit will pick Inferno because it’s the map where you need a little of everything: Skill, team play, tactics, setups, execs, and mid-round calls. It’s a comfort map that their players know like the back of their hand and the Ax1Le Hobbit double lurk style should let them maximize the skill differential between the two teams. For FaZe to stop them, they’ll need to roll the economy hard on the CT-side, play off their utility, and then switch to their aggressive two man setups to ambush Gambit at the end of the half. Even if that happens, Gambit’s T-side is too strong so I think in the worst case Gambit will still get a 5–10 or 6–9 scoreline without pistol and the potential 2nd round break.
Gambit’s CT-side will be even harder as Gambit could also roll off the economy, but even if they don’t have the economy, they have the best small buys of any CT-side defense (unless you count s1mple killing everyone as a setup). Overall Gambit should have a comfortable victory here.
As for FaZe, I think they’ll go with Ancient. FaZe are one of the early adopters of the map and they have a good grasp of the map. Their CT-side utilizes the double AWP and karrigan has an uncanny sense of when he can make a deep flanking push to close a round. FaZe’s T-side uses a varied mix of set plays, explosive A hits, and mid control, so it’ll be hard for Gambit to cheat on the defense.
Gambit play Ancient too, but they haven’t updated or made adjustments to their tactics, map control, or setups. The map itself seems to limit AX1Le and Hobbit’s efficacy as lurkers as their knowledge of the map doesn’t run as deep as the others. Gambit still have good set plays, good rotations, and good setups, but the informational difference could be enough for FaZe to take the win here.
Having said all of this, there is a glaring problem. Namely both Gambit and FaZe get five days off to prepare. Gambit has shown that if you give them time to prepare, they can predict a map veto and find a counter on a particular map. This map veto might be too predictable for Gambit and it could backfire. As to whether or not Karrigan will try to mind game that mind game is anyone’s guess.
The final remaining maps are Overpass, Mirage, and Dust2. Gambit are the better team and should try to force a comfort pick as their third so they’ll likely 2nd ban Overpass. This leaves either Mirage or Dust2 as the decider. I think Dust2 is the pick that Karrigan should go to.
Both Dust2 and Mirage are skill maps, but Gambit’s lurking style requires a lot of team play, rotations, and communication to counter correctly. International lineups are inherently weaker in that regard so it’s better for FaZe to avoid that pit trap and just go to Dust2.
While FaZe like Dust2, Gambit are one of the best teams on the map. I’ve studied various tactics, setups, and duels, but I couldn’t find any weakness in Gambit’s Dust2. As that’s the case, FaZe will likely need four conditions to take Dust 2. They need three players to go off: Twistzz, broky, and one more. Finally, they need Karrigan to call a monstrous T-side. If all four conditions take place, it’ll be a close game. Even so, Gambit should still be favored.
Win Conditions and Overall prediction
Gambit’s win conditions: Play at their usual level, prepare Ancient enough so that they can have a good chance of winning all the maps.
FaZe: Twistzz and Broky both need to play at a high level. Karrigan needs to win the mind game in the map veto. Finally, they need an X-factor. It could be Rain, Olofmeister, or Karrigan going off on a key map whether individually or via calling.
“M-M-My clan is thick like plaster, bust ya, slash ya
Slit a nigga back like a Dutch Master killer
Style jumped off in Killa Hilla
I was the thriller in the Ali-Frazier Manila
I came down with phat tracks that combine and interlock
Like getting smashed by a cinder block
Pow! Now it’s all over
Niggas seeing pink hearts, yellow moons, orange stars and green clovers”
Gambit either wins 2–0 or 2–1.
